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Reveal Real Estate - July Market Update

The Big Story
Quick Take:
  • Median home sale prices hit their highest level in a year, as the spring rally has now carried prices above where they were at this time last year.
  • Inventory levels have plateaued heading into the summer, with a slight month-over-month decline in June.
  • Existing home sales posted their strongest year-over-year gain in months, though they pulled back slightly from May's pace.
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.

Median sale prices are at their highest level in a year
The spring rally that began back in January has officially pushed median home sale prices to their highest level in a year. In June, the median home sold for $440,600, representing a 2.18% month-over-month increase and a 1.83% year-over-year gain. This marks the fifth consecutive month of month-over-month price increases, and the median sale price has now surpassed the $432,700 peak we saw in June of last year. However, the affordability picture isn't quite as rosy as it was earlier in the year. Mortgage rates ticked up slightly to 6.43% in June, and the combination of rising prices and rates that have bounced off their March lows has pushed the median monthly P&I payment up to $2,274. While that's still 1.60% lower than the $2,311 the median homeowner was paying a year ago, the gap is shrinking fast. Back in January, the median P&I payment was $1,949, so monthly payments have risen by more than $300 in just five months. If this trend continues, the affordability gains that lower rates provided earlier in the year could be fully erased by the end of the summer.
Inventory has leveled off heading into the summer
After climbing steadily from the December low of 1,230,000, inventory levels appear to have plateaued. In June, there were 1,560,000 homes available for sale, representing a slight 0.64% month-over-month decline from the 1,570,000 we saw in May, though still 1.30% higher than where we were at this time last year. On the new listings front, 463,480 new listings hit the market in June, representing a 2.45% year-over-year increase but a 2.42% month-over-month decline from May. This pullback in both inventory and new listings could signal that the spring surge of supply is beginning to taper off, which would be notable given that June and July are typically peak months for inventory. If inventory begins to decline further while demand remains strong, we could see the market tighten up heading into the back half of the summer. On the other hand, inventory levels are still roughly in line with where they were last year, so there's no reason to panic just yet.
Existing home sales are up more than 4% on a year-over-year basis
Existing home sales came in at 4,090,000 in June, representing a 4.07% year-over-year increase, the strongest year-over-year gain we've seen in quite some time. That said, sales did pull back by 2.39% from May's pace, which isn't unusual given the typical seasonality of the market. The year-over-year increase is the real headline here, as it tells us that buyers are meaningfully more active than they were at this point last year. This is likely being driven by a combination of factors: mortgage rates are still lower than they were a year ago, inventory is providing more options to choose from, and the steady march of price appreciation may be creating a sense of urgency among buyers who don't want to wait any longer. The question heading into the second half of the year is whether this momentum can be sustained. With mortgage rates hovering in the mid-6% range and monthly payments creeping higher, we could see some buyers pull back if affordability continues to erode.
Buyers are stepping up, but sellers still have the edge
When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.
Right now, the national market appears to be tilting in favor of sellers. Existing home sales are up more than 4% year-over-year, which means demand is absorbing the available supply at a healthy clip. At the same time, inventory has plateaued and even declined slightly on a month-over-month basis, which means the supply side of the equation isn't growing fast enough to offset the increase in demand. If this dynamic persists through the summer, we could see months of supply tighten further, giving sellers even more leverage. However, with monthly P&I payments rapidly approaching where they were a year ago, there's a chance that demand cools off in the coming months, which would bring the market back toward balance. As always, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what's going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!

Big Story Data

The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
  • San Francisco single-family home prices posted their strongest year-over-year gain of 2026, surging more than 26%, while the East Bay's condo market roared back to life with its best performance in years.
  • Inventory levels have reached crisis levels in several markets, with San Francisco single-family home listings down nearly 60% year-over-year and Silicon Valley down more than 26%.
  • Single-family homes are selling in two weeks or less across the region, with buyers acting decisively in the face of extremely limited supply.
  • The Bay Area is overwhelmingly a seller's market for single-family homes, with San Francisco sitting at just 0.7 months of supply, while the condo market continues to offer buyers more leverage in several counties.
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

Prices are climbing across most of the Bay Area, with San Francisco leading the charge
June brought broad-based price appreciation to much of the Bay Area, headlined by San Francisco's extraordinary 26.47% year-over-year surge in single-family home median sale price to $2,150,000. Competition in San Francisco has reached unprecedented levels, with the average single-family home selling for more than 26% over the original asking price. In Silicon Valley, San Mateo County posted an impressive 7.50% gain to $2,150,000, and Santa Cruz County ticked up 1.12% to $1,350,000, though Santa Clara County declined 8.57% to $1,920,000.
The North Bay saw strong gains in three of four counties, with Marin County climbing 8.63% to $1,825,000, Sonoma County up 2.94% to $875,000, and Solano County gaining 2.63% to $585,000, while Napa County continued to struggle with a 12.38% decline. The East Bay delivered continued good news, with Alameda and Contra Costa County single-family homes up 1.52% and 1.67%, respectively. Perhaps the most notable development this month is the remarkable turnaround in the East Bay condo market, where Alameda County condos surged 8.35% year-over-year and Contra Costa County condos gained 5.76%, a dramatic reversal from the double-digit declines we were seeing just a few months ago.

The Bay Area's inventory crisis has reached its most severe point yet
Inventory levels across the Bay Area have dropped to some of the lowest levels we've seen in recent memory. San Francisco is experiencing the most extreme shortage, with single-family inventory down a staggering 59.09% year-over-year, leaving just 135 single-family homes available for sale in the entire city. Condo inventory in San Francisco has also been cut dramatically, down 44.25% to just 378 units, meaning there are barely 500 total homes on the market citywide.
Silicon Valley's inventory has also plummeted, with single-family homes down 26.15% and condos down 11.75%. The North Bay is down 32.66% for single-family homes and 12.75% for condos, while the East Bay has seen single-family inventory decline by 26.79% and condo inventory drop by 10.36%. New listings remain well below last year's pace in most markets, with the North Bay down 23.22% and Silicon Valley down 9.59%. However, sales activity has surged in several areas, with North Bay single-family sales jumping 11.34% year-over-year and Silicon Valley sold listings up 6.91%, demonstrating that demand continues to absorb whatever supply enters the market.

Single-family homes are selling faster than ever, and the condo market is picking up steam
The combination of razor-thin inventory and strong demand has created one of the fastest-moving markets the Bay Area has seen in years. San Francisco single-family homes are selling in just 12 days, a 14.29% improvement year-over-year, while San Mateo and Santa Clara County homes are also moving in just 12 days each. East Bay single-family homes are selling in 13 and 14 days in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, respectively, with both counties posting meaningful year-over-year improvements.
Marin County single-family homes are moving in just 18 days, 28% faster than this time last year, while Sonoma County homes are selling in 32 days and Solano County in 30 days. The condo market is also showing encouraging signs of acceleration. San Francisco condos are now moving in 23 days, down 28.13% year-over-year, and San Mateo County condos are selling 10.26% faster. In the North Bay, Sonoma and Solano County condos are moving 22.50% and 26.42% faster, respectively. However, pockets of sluggishness remain, as Santa Clara and Santa Cruz County condos are taking 40.91% and 44.74% longer to sell than they were a year ago.
San Francisco leads one of the tightest seller's markets the Bay Area has ever seen
When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered a buyers' market.
San Francisco has become one of the most extreme seller's markets in the state, with just 0.7 months of single-family home supply and 1.8 months of condo supply, meaning every available single-family home would be sold in just three weeks at the current pace. Both figures are down more than 50% year-over-year. Across Silicon Valley, San Mateo County sits at just 1.3 months of single-family supply, down 38.10%, while Santa Clara County has 1.6 months and Santa Cruz County has 3.3 months. The East Bay remains a strong seller's market for single-family homes, with Alameda County at 1.9 months and Contra Costa County at 2.4 months, both down roughly 26% year-over-year. In the North Bay, Marin County has just 2 months of supply, down 57.45%, while Solano County sits at 2.8 months and Sonoma County at 3.4 months. Napa County remains the lone buyer's market at 6.8 months.
The condo market continues to favor buyers in several areas, with Alameda County at 4.4 months, Contra Costa County at 4.3 months, Napa County at 6.6 months, Solano County at 4.8 months, and Sonoma County at 4.5 months, though these figures have been trending downward as the condo market gradually tightens. As the summer selling season hits its stride, sellers across the single-family home market are holding virtually all the cards.

Local Lowdown Data

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